A new state-of-the-art report by the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD), developed under Work Package 6 (WP6) of the DE-CONSPIRATOR project, offers a vital step toward understanding and combating Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI). The study conceptualizes the social and collective drivers of FIMI as measurable variables, enabling deeper analysis, prevention, and counteraction through a whole-of-society approach.
📄 Read the full report here: Unraveling Influence – Social and Collective Drivers of Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference
The Structural, Social, and Personal Dimensions of FIMI
The CSD report reveals how interconnected vulnerabilities across different societal levels can be exploited for harmful influence operations.
At the structural level (macro), political and economic vulnerabilities, such as declining institutional trust, democratic backsliding, and state capture, weaken societies from within. Geopolitical pressures and economic dependencies further amplify exposure to external manipulation. The transformation of traditional media ecosystems by digital platforms, combined with low media literacy, create an exploitable information environment.
At the community and group level (meso), the study finds that social media platforms reinforce echo chambers, algorithmic amplification of polarizing narratives, and the exploitation of group identities. Marginalized communities are often targeted, exacerbating societal divisions. Partisan biases, strategic corruption, and illicit financial flows enable malign actors to deepen influence networks within political and social structures.
Finally, at the interpersonal level (micro), individual behaviors and predispositions, such as exposure and susceptibility to conspiracy theories, interact with social dynamics to shape vulnerability to FIMI. Exposure within close-knit groups and the erosion of critical thinking skills further reinforce these risks.
A Variable-Based Approach to FIMI
By conceptualizing FIMI drivers as independent, intervening, and dependent variables, the CSD report provides a structured analytical framework. For instance, social and political polarization can function as a cause (independent variable), a mediator (intervening variable), or an outcome (dependent variable) of FIMI activities, depending on the context. This approach allows for a more nuanced understanding of the causal relationships within FIMI ecosystems.
Quantifying Influence: What the Data Tells Us
While research on FIMI is still novel, available quantitative studies highlight its critical importance. The report highlights that findings indicate social media exploitation, ideological vulnerability, erosion of institutional trust, and heightened polarization as key enablers of FIMI operations. Advanced statistical methods, such as regression and econometric modeling, offer promising possibilities for translating these complex relationships into measurable insights.
Implications for Research and Policy
The CSD report concludes with a call to action for the academic and policy-making communities. Future research must further operationalize FIMI drivers as measurable variables and expand the use of quantitative methods to refine predictive models. Policymakers are urged to adopt holistic strategies that address vulnerabilities across the macro, meso, and micro levels. Prioritizing education reforms that foster critical thinking, strengthening institutional trust, and enhancing international cooperation will be key to fortifying societies against the evolving threat of FIMI.